Given the potential negative consequences of unmanaged urban growth on Baja California Sur’s quality of life, the state’s key policymakers and civic leaders need to be mindful of future decisions that they will make.  The challenges facing the state are complex; some have been referenced in the different sections of this executive summary and will be analyzed in detail in the chapters that accompany this document.  It is nonetheless worthwhile to point out these challenges to show that the work undertaken by the government, nonprofits, and community-level grassroots efforts is not superfluous; rather, quite to the contrary, this work must continue, and, better yet, be dramatically expanded to address the state’s long-term needs.

Ejidos, land sales, and speculation

Baja California Sur residents in general, and its environmental sector in particular, need to be aware of the risks involved if ejido lands—which account for over 60% of the state’s overall surface area — are sold. Priorities for developers and conservation organizations often overlap in Baja California Sur, as the pressure to acquire coastal lands, water sources, and residential zones increases.  Opportunities for sustainable development of these landscapes still exist, and partnerships could certainly be developed to address multiple goals.  It will also be important for nonprofit organizations and government agencies to monitor the rural land tenure situation with respect to the ejidos to ensure that fair prices are established, and that rural communities are not pushed out of their traditional lands forever.

Population distribution and growth per municipality

The different regions of Baja California Sur register significantly different population growth rates. The northern municipalities are emigration areas (Comondú and Mulegé), the southern municipalities (La Paz and Los Cabos) are in-migration areas (from other regions of the state, country, and from abroad). Consequently, in the south, pressure on the environment due to land speculation, commercial land use, and demands for consumer goods and services are very strong; whereas in the north, problems are due to abandonment of regions and economic activities, leading to hardship and more transient populations.

In the southern region, Los Cabos registered a demographic growth rate of 9.7% from 1995 to 2000. According to estimates, if this trend is maintained, the municipality’s population will double in approximately seven years. Presently, the southern urban areas that are growing at an accelerated pace are Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo, including their adjacent settlements, such as Colonia del Sol.  Although the facilities along that corridor are currently tourism-related, in the future, residential and commercial settlements may be created further inland to provide services to these resorts and gated communities.  If these settlements are not anticipated and planned for by the municipal government, irregular settlements could occur instead.[1] This dramatic and potentially unplanned demographic growth raises extraordinary challenges for the municipalities’ and the state’s public administration to provide services and infrastructure to the population. In the end, it is the public treasury that must pay the cost of economic growth.

The situation in the northern municipalities is very different as population and economic opportunities decrease. To discourage current residents from seeking employment elsewhere, productive alternatives must be made available.  In addition, it is urgent that municipal agencies develop programs that incorporate young people into activities that lead to a more promising future in their region.  The State Territory Regulation Program (PEOT) recommends that rural communities work together and form networks to create or take advantage of existing opportunities to strengthen their bonds.  Merging together, these dwindling towns can form larger, stronger communities that can support the needs of its population, and even build a burgeoning economy.[2]  Another PEOT recommendation is to abandon the most isolated and least populated settlements “through a coherent development policy linked to tourism potentials (rural, natural, and cultural) and a revaluation of traditional agrarian practices as more environmentally-friendly and higher quality production methods.”[3]

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