General demographic data

The 2000 census reported that Baja California Sur has 424,041 inhabitants, or less than half a percent (<0.5%) of Mexico’s total population.  It is the least-populated state in the country, both in number of inhabitants and population density. However, it has one of the highest growth rates in Mexico (3% in 2000), surpassed only by the states of Quintana Roo (5.2 %) and Baja California (3.9%).[1] The attractiveness of the tourism and agribusiness sectors may explain this phenomenon. 

Spatial distribution of the population in Baja California Sur is characterized by the fact that it is polarized, with 81.3% of the population living in a handful of towns of 2,500 inhabitants or more, and most of the remaining 18.7% living in tiny villages of less than 100 inhabitants.[2]

Figure 4: Distribution of the number and percentage of locations, relative to number of inhabitants

¨* Relative to the total population in the municipality
Source: Compiled by the author, taking as a basis 17, pp. 143-148 and INEGI, XII Censo General de Población y Vivienda, 2000. Tabulados Básicos. Aguascalientes, Ags. 2001, web page, updated June 2003.

The population of the state has traditionally been very young, with 32.1% of the population under the age of 15, 63.9% between the ages of 15 and 64, and only 3.9% older than 65[3].  However, recent data shows some demographic changes.  Decreasing fertility is reflected in the decrease in the youngest portion of the population (infant through 19 years), while the number of people 20 years of age and over has increased.[4] This situation will force the state to modify its education and health planning and programming. 

Baja California Sur has the second highest percentage of people 15 and over that stay in school in the country, with a state average of 8.2 years of schooling.  The national average is 7.3 years, with the highest average (8.5 years) in Nuevo León.[5]  In Baja California Sur, the largest number (69%) of highly-educated people 12 years old and over live in the municipality of La Paz, with a school level equal to or above secondary school, followed by Los Cabos (57%). The remaining municipalities show a lower grade of ranking: Comondú, 53%, Loreto, 52% and Mulegé, 50%.  For the entire state, this indicator averages 61%.[6]

Regarding income, data taken from the 2000 census shows that the majority of people earn at least two times Mexico’s minimum wage or at least US$9.17 a day.[7]  The income percentages among the economically active population (EAP) are shown in Figure 5 which considers a working population of 169,014

Source: Compiled by the author with data from INEGI, Tabulados Básicos Estados Unidos Mexicanos, [Basic Statistics for the United States of Mexico] Tomo III, XII Censo General de Población y Vivienda, Aguascalientes, Mexico, 2001, p. 1131 and 1134.

Population growth, distribution, and migration in Baja California Sur

As mentioned previously, in spite of its scarce population, Baja California Sur has the third-highest population growth rate in Mexico.[8]

Source: “Baja California Sur Demográfico, Breviario 1985” CONAPO-CONEPO de BCS; INEGI, Baja California Sur XI Censo General de Población y Vivienda, 1990; INEGI, Baja California Sur, XII Censo general de Población y Vivienda 2000, Tabulados Básicos, México 2003, p.44. 

The slowing of the internal population growth in the state has been the result of a pronounced decrease in birth and fertility rates in the population. However, the positive migration to the region has offset this decrease.[10]  This phenomenon was strongest in the municipality of Los Cabos, with a total growth rate of 9.6%, of which 6.98% was growth from migration.  Thus, in spite of the fact that in this municipality there was a decrease in the natural growth rate (it went from 2.8% in the 1990-1995 period, to 2.65% in 1995-2000), migrants seeking jobs in the tourist sector have continued to populate the area. 

The growth rate in Los Cabos is even higher than that of other renowned tourism centers, such as Cancún.  The primary migration flows to Los Cabos originate from the states of Guerrero (24.3%) of the total), Sinaloa (14.6%), and Mexico City (9.7%), but people are also coming from abroad; in the 2000 Mexican census, 46.7% of the population declared that they had been born in a different state or country.[11]

The municipality of La Paz owes much of its population increase to natural growth, since there was a balance between emigration and immigration during the periods of 1990-1995 and 1995-2000.  In contrast, Mulegé and Comondú have shown significant decreases in their growth rates, something that may be explained by the exodus of rural residents following agricultural failure

In spite of the fact that Baja California Sur is farther from the U.S. border than Mexico City, the state has many features characteristic of a border region, among them being a migrant-receiving state.  In 2000, migration accounted for 11.3% of the state’s total population. Of these migrants, 95.6% came from other states in Mexico and 4.4% from other countries; Baja California Sur was ranked third as a destination for domestic migration. [12]

Another common feature for a border region is the migrants’ lack of connection to their eventual destination.  For example, migrants living in Tijuana rarely call it “home”; in fact, they still relate much more closely to the region where they were raised, maintaining language, culture, and traditions from that location.  This situation is replicated daily in Baja California Sur, where a citizenry is emerging that has no historical, cultural, social, or familial links to the state, with the consequent lack of civic pride and sense of belonging

Migration flows have been an essential element of demographic dynamics in the state since 1960. When migrants began arriving in larger numbers, it was due to agricultural development in the municipality of Comondú (40.3%); later, tourism-related activities in Los Cabos attracted the majority of the migrants (35.7%).  Interestingly, migration in Loreto has been almost insignificant, with 1.6% of total migration in the year 2000. [13]This trend may change substantially with planned urban expansion in Loreto, which could potentially bring upwards of 110,000 new residents to the Loreto region over the next twenty years including many from the United States and Canada

Although Baja California Sur´s overall population growth rate is decreasing, a closer analysis indicates a variation in the northern zone, where the growth rate is practically nonexistent.  For example, Mulegé experienced a mere 0.01% growth from 1995-2000 and Loreto’s growth rate remained practically static.

In contrast, however, the southern zone growth rate is rising very rapidly. For example, the growth rate in Los Cabos rose from 8% in the period 1980-1990, to 9.7% in 1995-2000.  Future proposed plans for Loreto calls for a nine-fold increase in this community’s population by the year 2025 requiring that municipal authorities carefully assess future impacts to the region’s available groundwater supplies

The state’s urban system is dominated by one central city: La Paz. This is the capital city and concentrates political and administrative functions, as well as the main equipment and service facilities for the state, such as higher education and health institutions, communications, and the state’s main power distributor. Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo are also melding into one big urban center.  It is likely that the linear town that is forming on both sides of the highway will link the two cities and will give rise to irregular settlements.[14]

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