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Assessing Loreto’s Alternative Futures
 Incorporated
in 1991 with a population of 9,200, Loreto, Baja
California Sur remains a small coastal community of
15,000, with just 10,000 people in its city center.
Elected officials are now considering the approval of an
urban development plan, originally prepared by Mexico’s
tourism development agency, FONATUR. The plan calls for
an expanded urban region of up to 120,000 people over
the next 20 years – representing a population growth
rate of 11%. Questions remain about available water
resources and the socioeconomic impacts of such growth
on the community.
To explore the potential consequences for Loreto's
different growth alternatives, a binational team of
academic researchers from Harvard University’s Graduate
School of Design; the University of Arizona’s Department
of Hydrology and Natural Resources; San Diego State
University’s Institute for Regional Studies of the
Californias; Scripps Institute of Oceanography’s Center
for Marine Biodiversity & Conservation; Universidad
Autónoma de Baja California Sur; and the Centro de
Investigaciones Biológicas del Noroeste, S.C. teamed up
to study potential alternatives to the proposed FONATUR
plan and other growth scenarios. The study was
undertaken with the support of the City of Loreto and
funding from ICF.
The study outlines 25 alternative futures for urban
development over the next 20 years. Among the key
findings is that when Loreto’s population exceeds
30,000, the community will begin to exhaust groundwater
resources in the San Juan aquifer. Hence, any major
development plan needs to actively consider
desalinization, as well as how to pay for it. After
60,000, the early gains from Loreto’s economic growth
will be overshadowed by declining quality of life and
public amenities, increased risk of flooding, and
impacts to fisheries from desalinization and increased
fishing effort.
Overall, the alternative futures study has contributed
to expanding the public dialogue regarding the potential
benefits and costs of different growth strategies, and
the introduction of better information and transparency
in the process at a time of enormous change in the
region of Loreto. ICF hopes that the impacts of this
study will span beyond Loreto and improve the overall
planning process in Mexico.
For additional details on the alternative futures study
or to read the entire report, please visit:
http://www.futurosalternativosloreto.org/report/index.htm |
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