Risk Assessment

Federal, State, and Local Government.
The Mexican Constitution and civil codes give the government regulatory powers over private and public lands. These regulatory powers have been exercised in a both positive and negative manner in regards to conservation.

Government’s negative exercise of regulatory powers has severely impacted and threatened conservation in Baja California. The Federal and State Governments have promoted large-scale development projects that favor economic development agencies in direct conflict with natural protected area regulations and national conservation goals. Current threats include the Mitsubishi/Exportadora de Sal industrial salt project and the Nautical Stairway mega-tourism development project.

Immediate conservation efforts are required to address the high probability of negative government action in the Laguna San Ignacio Wetland Complex. Legal conservation structures that permanently protect private property and strengthen existing conservation schemes such as national protected areas must be established. Legal conservation structures such as conservation easements must be established in partnership with local, regional, and national stakeholders in order to foster multi-level conservation participation. Government agencies must be incorporated into the Laguna San Ignacio Alliance (LSICA) and conservation structures. The National Forestry Commission has pledged support to the LSICA efforts and has committed to providing technical assistance as well as financial incentives in the form of payment for environmental services provided by LSICA conservation easements. The Vizcaíno Biosphere Reserve administration has also pledged support to LSICA efforts and will be expanding reserve conservation programs in the newly created ejido reserves. The National Agrarian Registry (NAR) and its administrative agency the Procuraduria Agraria recognized the Ejido Luis Echeverría's request to empower its representative to execute an ejido-wide conservation easement. The National Agrarian Registry formally recorded the conservation easements. These government actors, in partnership with the LSICA, represent an important base from which to build a public/private constituency capable of countering threats to LSICA goals.

Government's positive exercise of regulatory powers has promoted conservation. Nationally, Mexico has established 138 natural protected areas covering 12.4 million-acres. Seventy- percent of the total number of protected acres are privately owned, subject to regulations limiting certain development rights. The Mexican federal government’s general policies protect important biodiversity areas while recognizing private property rights. The Natural Protected Areas National Commission (CONANP) and the Vizcaíno Biosphere Reserve both favor a model of public and private areas subject to land use restrictions according to conservation goals. The two agencies are actively promoting the establishment of the proposed conservation easements in the Laguna San Ignacio Wetland Complex.

Private Industry and Land Speculation.
Immediate efforts are required to address the negative impacts caused by industrialization and land speculation within the Laguna San Ignacio Wetland Complex. The Mitsubishi/ESSA industrial salt project continues to pose the most serious threat to the region. ESSA representatives approached the Ejido San Ignacio in order to discuss the possible purchase of 21,000-acres along Laguna San Ignacio coastline. The ESSA project would annihilate 116-square miles of intertidal, mud, and salt flats. Some documents indicate that the federal government is considering divesting itself of the industrial salt project, and a private Mexican corporation purchasing the project rights would not be subject President Ernesto Zedillo’s cancellation of the project.

The National Tourism Fund and the Baja California Secretary of Tourism continue to promote the Nautical Stairway. This project would produce devastating primary and secondary impacts on the wetland complex. First, megaresort and marina projects would destroy pristine coastal ecosystems. Second, increased economic activity combined with improved transportation corridors would ignite widespread land speculation and a large inflow of economic immigrants from other regions of Mexico.

The high probability of negative environmental impacts due to industrialization and land speculation can be restricted via legal conservation structures. For example, ejido-wide legal conservation structures directly address industrialization and land speculation: largescale industrialization is prohibited by the terms and conditions of conservation easements. Ejido-wide conservation easements are solid legal structures that reduce the risks that development projects pose to the rights, use, enjoyment, and benefits derived from the easement. In exchange of executing the conservation agreements, LSICA establishes Ejido Annuity Accounts. Through the establishment of LSICA conservation structures, local ejidos leverage the biodiversity and conservation potential of their lands and at the same time they secure the economic sustainability of their communities.

Mexican Law.
It is very unlikely that the Mexican government would repeal or enact legislation seriously abridging basic contractual or property rights. Mexico is a civil law society and therefore legislation may not adversely affect rights retroactively. Conservation easements are based on contract law and are granted full faith and credit by Mexican courts. Additionally, legal conservation structures are authorized by the Procuraduria Agraria and recorded in the Registro Agrario Nacional.

National legislation recognizes conservation easements and the Registro Agrario Nacional and the Procuraduria Agraria recognize and codify conservation easements in the national federal registry, thus it is unlikely that court challenges to conservation easements and management plans would overturn voluntary contractual agreements.

The Mexican government could revise and weaken environmental laws. For example, the environmental agency SEMARNAT recently undermined a law that gives protected status to wetlands and mangroves. Nevertheless, conservation easement management plans are not affected by changes to Mexican environmental laws. The regulations embodied in management plans, based on contract law, would remain in full force and effect. The LSICA easements currently establish a higher protection regime than the embodied in environmental laws protecting wetlands and mangroves.

Strategies that would increase the chances of conservation easement success include:

1. the establishment of a political conservation constituency capable of enacting, enforcing, and defending federal and state conservation legislation;
2. the enactment of a federal law that establishes a national legal standard for the creation of appurtenant and in gross conservation easements; and
3. the enactment of legislation improving state and federal incentives to promote private land conservation.

Ejidos and Ejidatarios.
It is very unlikely that current ejido members will fail to meet the responsibilities and obligations embodied in conservation easements. Ejido members have been instrumental in the decision making process that created the legal conservation structures. The LSICA has carefully described post agreement contingencies such as interpretation, implementation, transition period, and conflict resolution. The LSICA will continue to maintain participatory discussions and technical assistance to ejidos and ejido members. Post agreement involvement, assistance, and local capacity building by the LSICA in ejido reserves are critical to avoid conflicts in the long term.

Alliance member.
It is improbable that any of the main Alliance members will cease to exist in the short term. However, in the case of a party withdrawal, the selection of successors and roles shall be made by the party one-level up on the chain of command. The authorized party shall make decisions according to its own internal by-laws and decision-making processes. The chain of command is as follows:

1. Principal foundations and funders;
2. The International Community Foundation;
3. Pronatura;
4. The LSICA Advisory Committee; and
5. Eejidos.